It is fourth-and-one on the Texans’ 36-yard line with 3:21 remaining on the clock in a tie game. Should the Colts’ head coach Frank Reich send out kicker Rodrigo Blankenship to attempt a 54-yard field goal or rely on his offense to convert a first down? Frank chose to go for it, leading to a first-down conversion and an eventual touchdown to seal the win. Was this the optimal call or a gamble that ended up working? Through a collaboration between the NFL’s Next Gen Stats team and AWS, NFL fans can now get an answer to this question.
Like the Colts-Texans example, the decision of what to do on a fourth down late in the game can be the difference between a win and a loss. While it can be tempting to focus on fourth-downs late in the game, even fourth-down decisions that occur early in the game can

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